Brexit, Germany and Asia

This analysis from Goldmoney, in the wake of a surprise Tory election win-defeat, takes on a broader context beyond how the blow-by-blow actions of the upcoming Brexit negotiations are going to be played out, namely how Brexit will accelerate the geopolitical and economic tectonic shift from the status quo towards a multi-polar world.

Some key observations:

  • A unifying force is being put in place in the UK to negotiate a timely exit, hard or soft.
  • A EU without the UK would further solidify Germany as the center of gravity, and leaves her and France much more freedom to chart a path more independent of Washington, of which the UK is a vassal state.
  • The economic opportunities from the SCO bloc – which has just vastly expanded, with both India and Pakistan just becoming members, Iran mere months away from becoming one, and talks of accelerating Turkey’s membership – is increasingly too hard to ignore for the German businesses.
  • The pivot of Germany towards Eurasia would ensure that the Brexit negotiation will be done in a relatively clean and timely fashion, regardless of what the Brussels bureaucrats would like to do, and further weaken NATO’s role as Germany spearheads a better relation with Russia, even in defiance of Washington’s and the UK’s ongoing hostility.

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